statsmodels.tsa.forecasting.theta.ThetaModelResults.forecast_components¶

ThetaModelResults.forecast_components(steps=1)[source]¶

Compute the three components of the Theta model forecast

Parameters:

stepsint: The number of steps ahead to compute the forecast components.

Returns:

DataFrame: A DataFrame with three columns: trend, ses and seasonal containing the forecast values of each of the three components.

Notes

For a given value of $θ$ , the deseasonalized forecast is fcast = w * trend + ses where $w = \frac{t h e t a - 1}{t h e t a}$ . The reseasonalized forecasts are then seasonal * fcast if the seasonality is multiplicative or seasonal + fcast if the seasonality is additive.